Winter is coming

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There is a cruel economic winter headed our way. It is almost upon us and none of us will be spared.

The story

Not so long ago I had the misfortune of sharing a ride with two very foolish men who run an ICT accessories business in the capital. Inevitably as we ran out of stories, the topic turned to the state of the economy. It was one of the most natural segues considering  that Zimbabweans have been talking about the state of their economy for the better part of  a decade and a half and ever so rarely have they anything good to say.

These two fools were something special, however. Unlike most men who share the deluded fantasy that things are going to just work themselves out without any input from themselves or the government, these two fellows were far too gone into the world of madness.

They believed, somehow, as I have come discover so do a lot of men and women out there, that the problems currently facing the Zimbabwe economy are not their problems and that just because they run businesses that are currently, in their stunted opinion, far removed from those currently under economic siege, they are not going to be affected.

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Munhu ungoita madhiri ako mudhara, isu zvedu zvirikufaya. Who cares about the economy?!”

That was the pathos in their argument. I looked at them in shock and horror. They actually believe that they are immune to the Zimbabwean economy’s problems because things are going on well for them right now.

What’s wrong with the Zimbabwean economy?

Whilst statistics tend to be very scant for everything else, in Zimbabwe people are always trying to make us believe one statistic or another when it comes to the economy. As a result, we are bombarded with numbers at every turn and sometimes it is very hard to separate the facts from the fiction.

In my humble opinion, however, the last people who you need to listen to when it comes to the state and prospects of our economy are the government. They have proven their ineptitude on the topic for what feels like a lifetime.

Case in point: the government has been saying it expected the economy to grow by 3.2% this year, but has since revised this growth projection down and rather simplistically and disingenuously blamed it on drought.

The government now expects the economy to grow by 1.5 % despite its austerity measures. The powers that be have even given themselves pats on the back about the “improving” economy.The figures the government is producing are indicative of an economic boom and people should be happy. But people are not happy.

I am not an economist so I do not have a serving of impressive jargon and statistics to confuse you. Instead, consider that the following factors are indicative of an economy in a recession:

  1. A reduction in people’s wages and incomes (companies have been slashing people’s salaries)
  2. A rise in unemployment (people in the ICT world and elsewhere have been losing their jobs)
  3. A decline in the housing market (people’s rents have been falling and houses have been staying on the market longer than before)
  4. A fall in people’s living standards.

A recession is when the economy contracts or shrinks and the Zimbabwean economy is certainly going to see a significant shrink this year notwithstanding the Honourable Minister‘s assertion that it will grow.

You cannot just wish an economy growth and I am not going to speculate as to why the government has obstinately stuck to this narrative despite the overwhelming evidence on the ground.

I am a geek who just wants to write code, sell laptops, create awesome apps why should I care?

Should a shark care about the disappearance of algae? Image credit postmanproductions.org

Should a shark care about the disappearance of algae? Image credit postmanproductions.org

Most people call themselves sharks when it comes to ruthlessness and business acumen. So should sharks care about the disappearance of algae? Consider the above food chain and you will get my drift. No algae means no shrimp, no shrimp means no small fish which means no mackerel which means no tuna (which also means no sushi) which means it’s “Bye bye Mr Shark.”

If the Zimbabwean market is your primary market then things are not looking good for you. Most geeks that I have talked to in the past do not seem to understand the link between their world and the economy. I have taken flak for writing about the economy on a Tech forum. “What has that got to do with Technology?” seems to be the consensus.

The delusion that your business is not going to suffer in this economy will not save you when the time comes. Sooner or later your neighbour’s economic misery is going to find its way to your door either directly or via some lengthy route. Like death forgets no one, it will eventually reach your door.

How?

Demand. In a recession, people have got less and less money to spend and their priorities quickly change. Their lifestyles become more frugal as they try to live off the less income that they now have. They are less likely to spend on items that they view as luxuries.

People are not going to be buying your iPhones as they face the prospect of eviction and starvation. As a result, the iPhone guy has less income at the end of the month which means he is not going to be spending much either in the end. This is a self-nourishing downward spiral that has to be actively stemmed otherwise, before you know it, less and less people are going to be buying your fancy App and before you know it you are boarding a bus to your rural home.

Are things going to get better?

No, things are not going to get better. Things have to be made better. We cannot just wish for things to get better and have our troubles shouting: Jawohl, mein Kommandant! as they swiftly go away. Remember Newton’s first law of motion: A stationary object remains at rest until you apply a force to it. Similarly, the economy will continue in free fall until someone stops it.

Things are not going to get better anytime soon because some bureaucrat says so. The ZIMASSET and the 2015 Mid-Term Fiscal Policy ain’t gonna cut it.

It is like giving water to a person who has suffered serious physical trauma. It might ease their thirst, but it will most certainly not cure them. These policies do not even begin to address what is wrong with our economy and at times, things like the tax hikes and such, look to make it (the economy) worse!

Winter is coming…

My dear geeky friends, it is with this in mind, and with a heavy heart that I tell you: Winter is coming and it is almost upon us. None of us will be spared and you would do well to heed the Stark words and make your preparations. Go in hibernation mode like Polar bears and save whatever little money your startup has and spend it wisely for I fear this winter will be long m’lords.

Ok, so I have been binge watching GoT for like the umpteenth time but you get the point still. I hope you will not follow the lead of my two foolish travel companions who will in no doubt disappear like sparrows in wintertime when the full bite of winter comes. For they too will not be spared.

Avoid the fate of the money changers or you shall follow them into the utter gloom. Be mindful of the future and the fact that there are worse things that lie ahead. The Starks and me are always right in the end.

Image credit: highlighthollywood.com 

29 Comments

  1. Chenje says:

    Great write-up. It does make me think though that the Zimbabwean startup community, technology or otherwise should focus on developing solutions that serve more than our country(regional or international) maybe in that way we(algae) can help the shrimp and ultimately the sharks.

    1. observer says:

      You are so right there

    2. Tapiwa✓ says:

      Those in the software field are doing themselves a huge disservice if they are limited to the domestic market. It cost’s (almost) nothing to create another copy of your application/website – why not branch out internationally?

  2. Keith says:

    Winter is indeed coming! Great advice.

  3. waddilove says:

    Great write up, thank you for addressing complacency and giving a wake up call on the ripple effects of a dwindling economy, I would like to add the Electricity factor, unless you have or can afford back-up power supply, then the darkness will soon get to you.

    1. William Chui says:

      LOL, not only will we have a winter, be it will be one in darkness!!!

      Eish

  4. Just Joking says:

    What has this got to do with technology? Why is it on TechZim?

    1. Malcom X says:

      Technology is business and the economy my dear friend…high time Techies got that one!!

      1. TSA - The Serial Analyst says:

        Not to worryy @Malcom X abt that comment; he/she is Just Joking…kkkk

    2. PaulTheJavaProgrammer says:

      RETARD ALERT!!! Without business there is no tech.

    3. Joke Noted says:

      Joke noted @JustJoking

  5. William Chui says:

    @Garikai: What world are you living in?

    Winter is here!!!!

    1. cool says:

      u can say that again, with this massive load shedding ,every ICT start up is stuck in the middle of icy land where human online presence gt extinct. I don’t think m gonna pay my ADSL subscription next month coz its a waste of money and time meaning that other start ups like devs ,blogs , ecommerce etc r gonna b affected too. well done garikai!@

    2. purple says:

      True that…Its getting colder and colder…
      This is a great article Garikai. Thumps Up. Liked the analysis. Question is how many geeks are going to heed your warning.

    3. Great article. Like William Chui says, I am afraid the winter is already here.

  6. Malcom X says:

    Great article Garikai… well researched…provides the oftentimes missing link between the state of an economy and the technology sectors!

  7. macd chip says:

    We brought that winter upon ourselves!

    1. Everything is overpriced here.

    Everything you buy you are guranteed to buy it tripple its original price. People do not charge you according to work done. They just pull figures from thin air. I buy car parts thats where l get experience.

    2. Sanctions

    Not the ones being broadcast by politicians! Corruption is the number 1 sanction we need overcome if our economy is to grow. Everyone is corrupt here! People ar not ready to do anything by book, no respect for law at all.

    3. Laziness

    People expect to be paid but most dont want to work. You go into an office, most are on whatsapp, or if personal mobile rings they stop work and start chatting.
    We have land but how many of us wants to work in the fields? Its hard labour we dont like it, we all want to be office managers

    4. Cry babies

    NGOs really messed us big time with donations. We have become a nation which survives on handouts. If they do not come, we shout, scream to be heard. We write and publish stories to attract the right people we thought can give us money or help.

    5. Overpopulated labour

    Salaries must be less than a third of outgoing company cost, but just look at every company or gvt wage bill. Its always more than 3 quarters.
    Just look at how many police officers are deployed on roadblocks!

    6. Inflated ego

    I have noticed everyone in Zim is an expert in almost every field. People do not admit that they do not know, its all about “dealing”

    1. cool says:

      peferct comment there kkkk u is nailed it Mr mcdee

  8. cool says:

    u nailed it….*

  9. Most of the Starks died…

    1. Garikai Dzoma says:

      They were all honourable men and women in a world where honour means nothing. But eventually their words will come back to haunt Westeros:The Lannisters are unravelling, the much famed Lord of Light failed, Baratheon stumbled and died and the Dragon Queen is now learning that people don’t really care if you give birth to dragons you need to give more, compromise and be diplomatic.

      Those who murdered Jon Snow will soon learn that allegiances are less important than pragmatism when Winter and its terrors falls upon the wall.

      1. Brian Machimbira says:

        The only way to live past the winter is to flee the Seven Kingdoms. Do an Arya and come back when the winter passes

      2. Tawanda Kembo says:

        If you think that Jon Snow is dead then you’re in for a big surprise

  10. Net Neutrality says:

    This is not winter…. Its the Ice Age,,, We are all feeling the cold… Its like an ocean disappearing for a shark… Noone will survive!!!!

  11. Maithandi says:

    Great post!!

  12. PaulTheJavaProgrammer says:

    I m keeping my TechZim bookmark on my Toolbar. I ve always wanted a local tech website. You should do a thread on something like MVC and developer related content. I see most our local developers keep reinventing the wheel. Currently enjoying CakePHP, Its always bringing new surprises.

  13. Gedion Moyo says:

    Excellent article Garikai! As one commentator highlighted above, the solution is to create regional and global facing entities. If we create start up companies which save the global market, that will have positive ripple effects on our economy.

  14. William Chui says:

    To add insult to injury the GOZ has announced that not only will it be winter, but you will have it in cold water!!!

    http://newsvyb.com/government-intends-to-make-electric-geyser-illegal-in-zimbabwe-starting-october-2015/

  15. tsvenz says:

    John snow don’t die! We need you for winter

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